Political Risk Just Hit a Record. Your Ops Plan Hasn't.

41.1% and Climbing

The Coface global political risk index hit 41.1% in 2025 -- a record that exceeds the peak reached during the Covid-19 pandemic (Coface). That number captures armed conflicts, civil unrest, sanctions regimes, and political instability across 159 countries. And 2026 has only added pressure.

The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2026 ranks geoeconomic confrontation as the top risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis, selected by 18% of respondents. State-based armed conflict follows at 14% (WEF). These are not abstract forecasts. The Strait of Hormuz crisis, intensifying U.S.-China trade friction, and the Russia-NATO hybrid war are all active, all compounding, and all affecting supply chains right now.

Geopolitics Is No Longer Background Noise

Coface's analysis is direct: political risk is "no longer a one-off phenomenon" but has reached "sustainable levels," making it a "structuring factor" in company strategies. What was once treated as a temporary disruption is now a permanent feature of the operating environment.

For operations teams, this shift has concrete consequences:

• Supplier geography is a risk decision. Every time procurement diversifies into a new country -- Vietnam, Mexico, India, Turkey -- the political and social risk profile of that country becomes part of your operational exposure. A factory relocation that reduces tariff risk may increase civil unrest or regulatory instability risk.
• Lead times are political. The Hormuz closure added 10 to 14 days to shipping routes. Retaliatory tariffs reshape cost structures overnight. Sanctions block access to raw materials with days of notice. These are not supply chain problems -- they are political risk events with supply chain consequences.
• Insurance costs follow risk scores. War risk premiums on Gulf shipping lanes now exceed $100,000 per voyage. Political risk insurance premiums are climbing across emerging markets. Your CFO is already feeling this, even if your operations team is not tracking the underlying drivers.

What Needs to Change

Most organizations assess geopolitical risk quarterly -- if they assess it at all. A quarterly review cannot keep pace with a world where the Strait of Hormuz closes in 48 hours and sanctions shift weekly. Three adjustments matter:

Make political risk a continuous monitoring function. Treat it like weather: always on, always updating, scored against your specific assets and suppliers. Orion scores geopolitical risk in real time across 195 countries, down to sub-city resolution, giving operations teams the same continuous visibility for political events that they expect for natural hazards.

Connect risk signals to operational decisions. A political risk report that sits in a PDF on the security director's desk does not help the supply chain team reroute shipments. Risk intelligence needs to flow to the people making daily operational calls -- procurement, logistics, site management.

Score your exposure, don't just list it. Knowing that "Turkey has political risk" is not actionable. Knowing that your Izmir supplier sits in a region where the risk score jumped 30% in the last 72 hours -- that changes a procurement decision today.

Wrapping Up

Political risk at 41.1% is not a forecast. It is the current operating reality. The question is whether your operations team sees it in real time or discovers it in the next quarterly review. Request a demo to see how Orion tracks geopolitical risk across your asset and supplier network.